Next weather maker for our area will arrive during the Sunday/Monday time frame. A weak trough/front will be pushing in from the west, yielding small rain chances and a very small cool down. Models are still in disagreement on the timing of the system. The GFS model is a little faster, bringing chances as early as Sunday evening, as shown here at 7PM Sunday:
Meanwhile, the European model is a little slower, bringing this system in later Sunday overnight/Monday. Here's the Euro at 7AM Monday:
Timing aside, rainfall totals will be unimpressive, and we'll probably stay with highs in the 90's even behind this system.
Big story continues to be Isaac. The tropical storm has brought rain to the Lesser Antilles today, but the storm overall has been pretty weak. It continues to battle wind shear, dry air to the north being wrapped into the storm, and clusters of thunderstorms southeast of the center of circulation competing for available moisture. The hurricane hunters have been investigating the storm every 6 hours, and the National Hurricane Center has released it's 5PM EDT update, revising the 5-day forecast:
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the ultimate fate of Isaac. Numerous factors will influence the path and intensity of the storm over the next week.....I'll try to get more into that tomorrow. One of the reasons there is still some uncertainty with the track of the storm is the European forecast model. Over the past 2 years, it has been one of the best performing models with tropical tracks, but with Isaac, it is an outlier. Where most of the other models track this system toward Florida, the Euro keeps it farther west and sends it into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This could make things very interesting. Here's what the Euro shows for 7AM next Thursday (keep in mind, this is just one model's estimate):
IF (gigantic if!) this was to unfold, this COULD (gigantic could!) lead to some tropical rain for our area. Here's the Euro for 7AM Sat 9/1:
Bear in mind, this is almost certain to change....but it's at least worth keeping an eye on to see how this model trends over the next few days.
flash- something sudden, brief / drought- prolonged absence of something. YES we have a drought, NO it wasnt fast it started in March still going
ReplyDeleteyou guys realize that is an oxymoron right?
i know you didnt say it, but does NOT matter who started that term, its still wrong.
The terms "flash" and "drought" are somewhat relative. They can have varying definitions. Typically, a drought takes many months of below average precipitation to develop, and more times than not, this is a fairly gradual process. Many climate and weather people are calling this a "flash drought" because it did progress much faster than other droughts. As recently as March, we had a surplus of soil moisture, and farmers anticipated a potential record growing season. We did not officially develop drought conditions as defined by the US Drought Monitor until early/mid May...and by the end of July, the extreme heat has plunged us all the way to "exceptional" drought. This is incredibly fast! So...no, you won't find the term "flash drought" in a dictionary, but I do think the term has some validation.
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