Monday 8/13 Update

Updated:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for most of the Local 6 area until 11PM tonight.  A broken line of storms is likely to develop over the next hour, and move fairly quickly to the east.  Most of the activity should be through the region around dark or shortly thereafter, so I suspect most of us will see the watch dropped prior to 11PM.

Original Post:

Good Monday!  Hope you enjoyed a very nice weekend...temperatures dipped all the way down to 53 here at the weather center on Sunday morning...just one degree shy of a record low!  And it looks like the trend of cooler weather will continue on for a little while. More on that later.

This afternoon we've got a cold front moving through, and with skies clearing behind this morning's showers and thunderstorms, the atmosphere is growing unstable, setting the stage for another chance of storms late this afternoon and early this evening.  The SPC continues to outlook a large portion of the Local 6 area in a slight risk, with the primary concern with any severe storms that develop being damaging winds and hail.  Can't totally rule out a renegade rotating storm, so while the tornado threat is very low, it's not completely out of the question:

By tomorrow morning, we'll be waking up to sunny skies, and another shot of rather dry and slightly cooler air will be arriving behind the cold front:

Tomorrow will be the pick day of the week, with northwest flow keeping things comfortable with highs in the mid 80's.  But, by the middle of the week, a summertime feel will return. Highs will head back to the lower and maybe even mid 90's on Wed & Thu, with higher humidity.  However, this warmup will be short-lived, as another cold front takes aim on the area late Thu or early Fri.  Here's how the HPC surface map depicts things by Friday AM:

This front will be bringing our next chance of showers and storms.  Still some model disagreement on timing and how much moisture will be available.  For now, Thursday night looks like the best chance of rain, but if things slow down with this system, we may be looking at a small chance lingering into Friday AM, especially in KY & TN.  I'll be fine-tuning that forecast as the week goes on. As for rainfall totals....as usual, I don't think it's worth getting too excited about yet.  Here's how the GFS model shows things for Thursday night:

Those are some pretty meager totals...however, the HPC is a little more optimistic:

The bigger story with this front will once again be the arrival of a very pleasant Canadian air mass for the weekend.  Highs from Friday through Sunday will run in the lower to mid 80's, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50's.  And today, the Climate Prediction Center put out this good-looking 6-10 day outlook:

A big dome of high pressure way up over Greenland is causing the jet stream to buckle and curve down over the eastern U.S., bringing cooler Canadian air.  During the winter months, this type of pattern would lead to a big arctic outbreak...but during the late summer months, just means a very refreshing change for a couple of weeks!

With this evening's threat for strong storms, the folks at AccuWeather decided to pick a local community as the worst weather spot in the U.S. today (not sure it will be that bad, but they like to highlight towns with unique names. So, congrats to Pumpkin Center, KY (just northeast of Princeton in Caldwell Co.)!