Thursday 8/9 Update

Good Thursday!  Big story today is the arrival of a cold front and upper-level system tonight, and associated storm chances.  SPC keeps basically the entire Local 6 region in a slight risk for today/tonight, with the primary concern being damaging winds and hail. 

If anything changes with this forecast later in the afternoon, I'll have an update.  For now, here's what we're looking at: As this system gets closer...my gut feeling is getting less optimistic about our chances for widespread storm activity.  Two of the short-term, higher-resolution models we use for forecasting over the next 12-24 hours, the RPM (our Hour-By-Hour model), and the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh) show very little activity over our region. These models typically do a very good job of depicting trends over the short term, and it is certainly concerning when they don't generate precip. Two other models, the GFS & NAM, do generate some precip, but as I've been showing the past couple of days, amounts are generally 0.10" or less.

Here's the most likely scenario....with plenty of heat and increasing humidity, but no well-defined boundaries, we'll have a chance for isolated storms this afternoon just about anywhere.  As seen above, the cold front we're waiting for will be lined up through SEMO & S. IL by early evening, so those will be the most likely places where a line could develop first, if one is going to be able to develop.  With the low positioned to our northeast, that's where we'll find the best upper-level dynamics, and a better chance for more organized storm development.  That leads me to think the far eastern sections of the area, especially SE. IL & the Pennyrile of KY have the best chances of seeing a storm, especially as we get toward midnight or so.

Storm chances will be out of here by tomorrow morning, but as the upper-level low moves near the region, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a decent overcast for at least the first part of the day.  Would expect sun to return for the afternoon, and have highs only in the mid 80's, with low humidity.  Still think it's a good possibility that a few areas could dip into the upper 50's Friday night, with the combination of radiational cooling from clear skies and very dry air.  This weekend continues to look like one of the most pleasant in at least two months, with sunny skies, low humidity, and highs in the mid/upper 80's. 

Finally, wanted to give you a link to an interesting article I ran across this morning over at Accuweather discussing how this summer's drought is affecting how some of our favorite summer foods are tasting. Click here to check out the article.