Wednesday 9/12 Update

Hello again everyone!  The blog is back after a few days on vacation in the Sunshine State.  It seems that we have turned the corner and are starting to head into that transitional time of the year when the days grow a little shorter and the temperatures gradually get a little cooler.  That at least seems to be the trend as we look ahead to the next week or so.

We'll continue with pretty standard conditions over the next day or so, with lows tonight headed back to the lower 60's, and highs tomorrow back in the mid 80's.  Like today, tomorrow will feature a decent amount of cloud cover scattered among some peaks of sunshine.  By tomorrow night, the next weather system to move through the area will be knocking on our door from the northwest.

This is the surface map at 7PM Thursday, depicting a cold front running from southern Michigan all the way down through Texas.  This front will be heading into the Local 6 area by Friday morning, but as it progresses on to the east, the amount of moisture it has to work with will be in short supply.  Here's what a couple of the forecast models are cranking out on Friday...

GFS 6-hr precip through 7AM Friday:

GFS 6-hr precip through 7PM Friday:

European model 6-hr precip through 7AM Friday:

European model 6-hr precip through 7PM Friday:

As you can see, there isn't much rain to be found over our area.  So, while we'll have to deal with a mainly cloudy day, and perhaps a few spotty light rain showers, it looks like measurable rain is going to be hard to come by.  Today at midday I said I'd be surprised if many of us picked up more than 0.1" of rain.  While we need more rain to continue making up ground on our drought, this forecast is good news for football coaches that are probably getting tired of seeing rain in the Friday night forecast.

Behind this front, it looks like a fantastic Saturday, with mainly sunny skies, highs in the upper 70's, and lows in the mid 50's!

Things get a little trickier in the forecast for Sunday-Tuesday.  Models have been showing a mid-level system moving in from the west sometime during that time period, but there hasn't been much model agreement on the timing, location, or effects from this.  So until we get better run-to-run consistency, the forecast will include some clouds and a very small rain chance...but we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach.

The medium-range GFS shows a more substantial cold front sliding through next Tuesday, with another rain chance and at least a brief shot of even cooler air:

GFS 6-hr precip through 7AM Tuesday 9/18:

This system probably won't be a big rain-maker, but it does look like it could bring a pretty significant blast of cooler air:

GFS surface temps 7AM Wed 9/19:

In case it's a little difficult to decipher what you are seeing, those shades of green over the Local 6 area are temperatures in the upper 40's by Wednesday morning!  Keep in mind, models can change over the span of a week, but this will be something to watch. 

No update on Thursday, but the blog will return Friday with more updates!