Tuesday 9/4 Update

Good Tuesday afternoon!  Yesterday marked the "unofficial" end to summer with the Labor Day holiday....but the heat and humidity keep marching on.  A very typical late summer afternoon across the area, as evidenced by this view from the Wastepath Skytracker from U.S. Bank in downtown Paducah:

With dew points running well into the 70's today, heat index values are in the upper 90's to around 100, especially where sunshine is most plentiful. That will most likely be the case again tomorrow, as least in sunnier spots.  However, some fall-like changes are just a few days away....with both cooler temperatures and rain chances in the forecast.  We'll take all the rain we can get, because even with the help we received from Isaac, we are still running over 14" below average in Paducah & Cape Girardeau!

The first system is still set to move in tomorrow.  The image above shows an area of lift moving across central MO tomorrow afternoon (shown in the shades of green/yellow/orange).  This will help tap into the tropical moisture in place to generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This is not the most potent of systems, so coverage will most likely be fairly low.  The best time frame for precip will be in the afternoon/evening hours...but something as early as tomorrow morning can't be ruled out.  Rainfall totals should be pretty low....aside from a localized heavy downpour, I'd be surprised to see much more than a quarter of an inch.

The second system to bring rain chances to the area will be a bit more potent.  A cold front will arrive on Friday...with a surface low along the front out in the Plains Friday morning moving northeast along the front and through our area Friday night/early Saturday.  While chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast as early as Friday morning, it looks like Friday night and Saturday morning will be the best chance for wet weather.  Models look to be in pretty good agreement at this point.

GFS 6-hr precip at 7AM Saturday:

European model 6-hr precip at 7AM Saturday:

This system should pack a little more punch, and hopefully deliver another decent rain.  The latest HPC 5-day rainfall forecast shows most of the region picking up somewhere in the neighborhood of an inch of rain through the weekend:

 

Starting Sunday, the models diverge on what happens to this system.  The European model is more progressive and goes ahead and pushes this system on to our east:

 Meanwhile, the GFS is wanting to develop it into a closed low to our east:

If the Euro is correct, we'd most likely get back to sunny skies for Sunday and Monday.  If the GFS solution wins out, then things would be slower to clear off, and we may even have a few lingering showers in the eastern sections of the area on Sunday.  We'll have to see what the models do with this over the next couple of days.  Either way, some very pleasant air is set to arrive for the weekend.  Still looks like highs in the upper 70's/low 80's, and overnight lows in the 50's starting Saturday.  We'll take it!