Monday 9/24 Update

Hello everyone, hope you stayed warm this morning!  For the second straight day, we had an official low of 38 degrees at Barkley Regional Airport.  But after a chilly start to the day, our focus for this week is actually on a setup that will lead to unseasonable warmth and a lengthy period of shower chances.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll have a warm front lifting into the region.  Ahead of this front, moisture is increasing, leading to the arrival of some higher clouds this evening.  After midnight, chances for scattered showers and imbedded rumbles of thunder will be arriving. Along with rain chances, this front will also bring in some very warm and humid air. A very noticeable warm up will accompany this front as well, with highs expected in the mid and possibly upper 80's tomorrow!  As the warm front lifts into the region, the cold front pictured from near Chicago back into Iowa and Nebraska will slide south and stall across our region.

The stalled front will be keeping our weather setup fairly unsettled through the week.  The GFS surface chart above shows shower chances arriving by early Tuesday, and continuing along the stalled front through Wednesday morning.

And a glance at the model from Wednesday PM through Friday AM continue to show a band of purple draped across our region...indicating continuing chances for rain near the front through the end of the week.

As we look ahead to the next several days on the surface map above (top left shows Thursday, top middle Friday, etc), it looks like this frontal boundary will be part of our weather picture through the end of the week, until another front over the weekend is able to win out and push some cooler and drier air south.  Before that next front arrives on Friday or Saturday, we'll have about a 30% chance of rain each day...with the highest chances along/north of the Ohio River.  Temperatures will stay quite warm south of the front as well, with highs running in the mid 80's through Thursday.

The forecast models have been a bit of a jumbled mess for late in the weekend and the first of next week, so I'm not going to get into much there until we have a little better model agreement.  Hopefully we can keep it dry for BBQ on the River!