A Look Ahead....Stormy, Then Colder?

Greetings!  As expected, our Thursday got off to a wet start, with around 0.55" of rain here at the weather center.  It was an upside-down almanac day too....with our high temperature for the day of 60 degrees coming at 3AM, and a 45 degree reading as of this update at 4PM serving as our low for the day.  The upper-level low responsible for today's gray skies will shift off to the east tonight and tomorrow, bringing a return to sunshine to the area by our Friday afternoon.  In the wake of this upper-low, a nice ridge will build in for the weekend, allowing temperatures to moderate back into the upper 60's for daytime highs, with plenty of sunshine. 

7AM Sat.-Large ridge over Mid MS Valley, developing trough over the Rockies

By the first part of next week, we'll enter into a more unsettled pattern just in time for Election Day, as a storm system that will develop over the weekend across the Rockies begins to push eastward.  This will set us up for the potential for some stormy weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.

7AM Tuesday-Strong trough over the central Plains, putting our region in strong SW flow, leading to warm, moist air setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms.

This system will approach the region Tuesday, and bring a surface low and attendant cold front through the region Wednesday, leading to showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center is including parts of southern Missouri and Arkansas in a risk for severe weather, so we'll want to keep an eye on the development of this system to see if parts of the Local 6 region may have to deal with strong storms as well.

 Storm Prediction Center's 4-8 Day Severe Weather Outlook

Behind this system, temperatures again look like they will fall into the 50's for highs and 30's for lows by the end of next week.  But, it's what might be on the way about two weeks from now that really caught my attention earlier today when looking through some longer-range forecast models.  A blast of cold air coming down from Canada may finally bring the first freeze to the region, with temperatures in the upper 20's being advertised by the morning of Thu. Nov. 17.

7AM, Thu., Nov. 17-GFS Surface temperature map showing readings in the upper 20's across the Local 6 region.

One thing to note, in my last blog I included some info on first freeze dates, and if freezing temperatures do not arrive until the 17th, it would set the record for the latest first freeze....with the previous latest date coming on Nov. 13, 1975.  We'll see what happens on the specifics, but one thing is for sure, cold air is coming, like it or not!