Rain This Weekend...And More???

Hello everyone!  I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and got some good deals if you were one of those dedicated Black Friday shoppers.  Cheesy as it sounds, I've been advertising today's weather as a "one-day only deal", with big discounts on cloud cover leading to lots of sunshine, and mild temperatures in the lower 60's as a free gift! 

Unfortunately, the pleasant weather ends tomorrow, as a strong cold front will be sweeping across the central U.S., bringing widespread rain, winds, and colder temperatures.  Here's what our weather map will look like by tomorrow at 6PM:

A cold front will be in the process of moving through the region, bringing widespread rain to the Local 6 region.  Rain could arrive as early as sunrise in southeast MO, but the highest rain chances will run from around midday through the evening.  This will be another steady, soaking rain once it sets in, with pretty hefty totals expected, especially the farther east you go.

Rainfall totals through 6AM Monday (seen above) should reach near an inch across southern IL & southeast MO, and should range from 1-2" across western KY & northwest TN.  Even heavier amounts are expected from central KY into middle TN and northern MS & AL, where 3 or 4 inches will be possible.  This will certainly dampen the drive home across much of the mid-south over the holiday weekend, and may end up causing several delays at airports across the eastern U.S.

As this front continues to press east Saturday night and Sunday, colder air will quickly fill in....and if the cold air can catch up to the moisture quick enough, a few spots across the eastern U.S. could see a few snowflakes.  The next two graphics show where snow may fall....however, I'm going to include a disclaimer that based on some of the model data I looked at, I think these forecasts are a bit overdone. 

The graphic above shows the probability of at least 1" of snow through 6AM Sunday.  Notice parts of southern IL & west KY are being shown in the 40-80% range.  Again, I think this is too high.  With this system moving east pretty quickly, I think most of the deep moisture is out of here before the cold air can arrive.  We may have a couple of sprinkles or flurries Sunday, but I believe most of the day will be dry. Moving on, here's the same graphic for the next day:

This graphic for the probability of at least 1" of snow runs from 6AM Sun-6AM Mon.  I do think it is more possible to see some flakes flying farther to our east, but shouldn't amount to much.

So, bottom line....rain is almost a certainty for Saturday, but should end by Sunday morning, with only a very slim chance of a few flurries mixing in on the tail end of this system.

Beyond this weekend, the majority of forecast models continue to be in agreement that this system will clear out by Monday & Tuesday, giving us mainly clear skies.  However, there is at least one model still indicating a slower departure to this system, so I'm not ready to fully commit to sunshine for Mon/Tue...we'll go with partly cloudy for now.  Temperatures next week will be turning colder, with daytime highs from Sunday-Thursday not likely to get above 50.  Overnight lows through that same period will run in the neighborhood of 30. 

A quick scan of the extended 8-16 day charts shows a pretty uneventful beginning to December, with little to no precipitation showing up, and temperatures running pretty close to seasonal norms.