Greetings....it's been way too long since my last post here! I hope to be more regular with updates here as we head into the typically active periods during the late fall and winter months.
While temperatures are getting chilly on us, we really seem to have had a fairly warm autumn thus far, and a review of the climate data shows that we are actually now behind schedule for our first freezing temperatures of the season. Based on the most recent 30-year averages (1980-2010), the average date for the first freeze in Paducah is October 25. The earliest freeze on record was Oct. 3, 1974, and the latest date for first freeze was just a year later on Nov. 13, 1975. Looking at some of the long-range forecast model numbers, unless something changes, that record for the latest freeze could be in jeopardy this year! The 16-day GFS model currently takes us all the way out to Nov. 12, and shows the coldest temperature at around 37 degrees by next Friday morning. Now, as I've mentioned before, it's a stretch to consider anything that far out as a certainty, but the general trend in the models supports this idea of somewhat milder weather continuing.
Looking a bit farther out into the distance, the Climate Prediction Center has released the November outlook, which shows our region having a 33% chance of above average temperatures for the month, as well as a 40% chance of below average precipitation. You can view the CPC's monthly outlook by clicking here.
Finally, I'll grab the binoculars and look way out over the next few months of the upcoming winter. The chatter around town already has people talking about rumors of another rough winter or another big ice storm. I think after experiencing the catastrophic ice storm in 2009, there are probably going to be rumors like these just about every winter. Granted, most of us are pretty spooked by winter weather, and the dangers it can bring. And yes, it is true that we have been the victim of more than our fair share of extreme weather over the past few years. But, the only thing these rumors do is get people riled up and worried. The fact of the matter is that any sort of long-range outlook can only look at general climate trends, and simply cannot accurately predict any specific weather event such as an ice storm, snow event, or severe weather outbreak more than a week or so in advance. Any forecaster that says otherwise is just trying to stir something up. Instead of buying into rumors and worrying about what may happen, your best bet is to simply be prepared for whatever winter may bring. Okay, rant over.....
On to some actual scientific talk about the winter ahead...last year's winter was heavily influenced by two large-scale climate patterns.....La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation. La Nina, a cooling of the waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically leads to warmer-than-average conditions across the southern U.S., and typically leads to wetter-than-average weather for our part of the country. La Nina certainly contributed to last spring's historic flooding on the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers. While this year's La Nina isn't forecast to be as strong, it still should lead to quite a bit of precipitation and perhaps increased storminess for our region. The "wild card" in looking at the winter outlook is the Arctic Oscillation. This feature is much less predictable, and more erratic. It can quickly fluctuate from it's positive phase to the negative phase, which aggressively drives cold air from Canada south into the U.S, leading to cold air outbreaks and winter storms. These negative phases can last anywhere from a couple of weeks to a month long, and really can't be predicted more than a week or so in advance. It's this feature that really makes any sort of specific winter weather predictions nearly impossible. All of that to say that the official winter outlook from NOAA shows our area as having equal chances of average, below average, or above average temperatures this winter, and a 33% chance of having about average precipitation. We'll have to wait and see how that all plays out! For the full article released by NOAA on their winter outlook, click here.
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