Cold Front/Strong Storm Chances Tonight...& Tracking Irene

Whew...it was another hot August afternoon today, but some changes are on the way, starting tonight.  Let's go to the maps and check out the big weather story around here:

This is the forecast as of 1AM Thursday, showing a fairly strong cold front coming through the region.  This front will sweep in some drier and cooler air for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  We should see temperatures fall off by around 8-10 degrees in most locations by tomorrow, and dew points should take a nice tumble from the lower 70's today, to the lower 60's tomorrow. 

As this front enters the region tonight, a few scattered storms are possible for our region.  I'm not too excited about seeing widespread storms, as the main atmospheric forcing and deeper moisture are farther to our east, but if anything does pop tonight, there could be a handful of strong storms.  Parts of S. IL & W. KY are included in a slight risk from the SPC....with damaging winds & hail the concerns.

Of course the major weather story this week is Hurricane Irene.  This storm continues to strengthen today, now up to a category 3 major hurricane, and should grow to category 4 intensity over the next 24-48 hours.  A large portion of the northeast and mid-Atlantic are under the gun to be impacted by this storm over the weekend....including the Outer Banks of NC, Washington D.C., Atlantic City, Philadelphia, New York, & Boston.  For the northeast, this could be the strongest hurricane impact since the late 1930's or 1940's.  Here's a look at Irene on satellite on Wednesday afternoon:

 

  

The latest forecast models continue to gradually inch the projected track of Irene to the east....which currently keeps the center of the cone of uncertainty just east of the Outer Banks of NC, and actually projects landfall around Connecticut or Rhode Island.  Again, that's not a specific forecast....just tracking the center of the model projections.  If this storm stays just offshore, that would keep the very strongest winds offshore as well, but storm surge and drenching rains will lead to big problems, and the winds will still be howling.  It's been a long time since these parts of the country have had to deal with a storm like this, so it should be interesting to see how things unfold.  Here's the latest 5-day forecast, as of Wed. afternoon: