Wednesday 7/13 Update

It was a noisy end to the heat wave last night as some powerful and drenching storms rolled in from the north, putting a brief end to the oppressive July heat.  (I was a little upset with Mother Nature last night, as the storms temporarily interrupted my viewing of the MLB All-Star Game!)  On a more serious note, these storms did pack a punch, and actually produced an unconfirmed funnel cloud around KY Lake, although this viewer pic pretty much speaks for itself:

These storms were associated with a weak cold front that is sagging southward through the region today...helping bring temperatures that are 10-15 degrees cooler than the past couple of days.  Dew points that were in the upper 70's to near 80 the past couple of days have slightly dropped to the mid 70's today, and models are advertising dew points in the upper 60's to lower 70's tomorrow...so things may be slightly less uncomfortable. 

The cold front will slide on through tonight and remain near or just south of the area for a couple of days, before basically just washing out by the weekend.  With the front in the area, we'll have a daily chance of typical summertime pop-up showers and storms through Saturday.  Temperatures will remain in the upper 80's to around 90 tomorrow, then the mercury starts to climb by the end of the week.  An upper-level ridge will press back from the south over the weekend, that will send us to the low to mid 90's over the weekend, with heat index values that will return to around 100-105.
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Onto some other randomness....yesterday evening was one of the biannual (twice a year) occurrences of "Manhattenhenge"...where the sun aligns with the east-west grid of New York City's streets, allowing the sun to shine directly down all streets at the same time.  Click here to check out some very cool pics from NYC.

Sunday 7/10 Update

Sunday Afternoon Update

As of this afternoon, the advisories and watches for tomorrow have now been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for the entire area for tomorrow.  Air temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90's to near 100, which combined with dew points in the mid 70's, will lead to heat index values reaching 110-115.  This will lead to a potentially dangerous situation for folks outside working, please be sure to take breaks, dress appropriately, and stay properly hydrated.  Similar numbers are still expected for Tuesday, however, a chance for isolated thunderstorms could help the situation just a little.

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Quick update on the heat situation....as of this post around 8AM, a Heat Advisory covers nearly all of our area for today, with peak heat index values expected around 105.  Forecast models continue to advertise even hotter and more oppressive air for tomorrow and Tuesday, with actual air temperatures now possibly reaching near 100, leading to peak heat index values that could reach or exceed 110!  The NWS has now issued an Excessive Heat Watch for most of the area for Monday & Tuesday.  Here's a look at the latest weather story map from the Paducah NWS, outlining the current advisory and watch areas:

Bottom line....the next three days will likely be the most oppressive that we've had to deal with this summer, so if you are planning outdoor activities today or have to work outside this week, be sure to take the necessary precautions to avoid any heat-related illness.

Saturday 7/9 Update

Saturday Afternoon Update:

Still looking at some serious heat and humidity for the next 3 days or so.  As expected, Heat Advisories have been posted this afternoon for parts of the area, starting tomorrow.  The NWS Paducah office has included all of their counties in southeast MO in a Heat Advisory for Sunday from Noon-6PM, with heat index values expected to reach up to 105.  The NWS Memphis office has included the MO Bootheel & northwest TN in a Heat Advisory effective from 10AM Sunday-10PM Monday, with heat index values expected to reach 105-110 both days. 
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Oppressive heat and humidity on the way!  With sunshine back this weekend, temperatures will once again be heading back to the low 90's today, with thermometers climbing even higher over the next couple of days.  The real kicker will be the high humidity, with dew points headed to the mid 70's Sunday-Wednesday, which will lead to some potentially dangerous heat index values.  The NWS in Memphis has issued an Excessive Heat Watch for the MO Bootheel & Gibson, Dyer, Lake, and Obion Co., TN, for Sunday & Monday...where peak heat index values may reach 107-113.  The NWS Paducah issued a Special Weather Statement for now, but with peak heat index values likely to reach advisory criteria of 105, I expect at least a Heat Advisory to be issued later today or tomorrow.

 

For many of us, extreme heat is just a nuisance that makes outdoor activities uncomfortable...but heat is actually the number one weather-related killer in the U.S.  On average, heat is responsible for more deaths each year than tornadoes and hurricanes combined.  So be sure to use caution and common sense over the next few days when dealing with the elements.  Be sure to stay hydrated, take breaks, dress appropriately, and check on friends, family, and neighbors that may not have access to air conditioning.  Also remember your pets and livestock with plenty of cold water and some shade.  For more information on heat safety, check out this link from the National Weather Service.

Thursday 7/7 Update

First update in a few days here...been away for a long weekend.  We've got a few things to look at today, including the possibility of a wet night ahead, a nice weekend, and some sizzling temperatures.

This afternoon, it's a typical July setup...hot, humid, and some pop-up thunderstorms.  But tonight, a little better organized system will lead to better chances of more widespread wet weather.  There is currently upper level low in north central MO that will drop southeast tonight, and as it does so, will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms later tonight, overnight, and possibly even into the part of tomorrow.  The threat of severe weather tonight is low, but the SPC has included most of the area (along and west of the lakes) in a slight risk, for the potential of a few storms producing wind or hail.

Tomorrow, the upper level low scoots onto the east, with rain chances diminishing as the day wears on.  Shouldn't be too terribly hot, with highs in the mid 80's.  Then as we head into the weekend, the big weather story will turn to an expanding upper level ridge that will keep us sunny and send the mercury rising.

The image above in the GFS 500 mb chart (mid/upper atmosphere) on Monday morning.  Notice the "H" near Memphis...that is the center of an expansive area of high pressure in the upper levels, which promotes sinking air, sunshine, and heat.  According to the latest models, we'll see low to mid 90's Saturday through at least Wednesday, with Monday and Tuesday looking like the hottest days of this stretch.

Finally, while our weather will remain pretty standard for July, there has been some extreme weather lately, both here on planet Earth and in outer space. First, here on Earth, you may have heard about a somewhat rare storm called a "haboob" which took place in Phoenix on Tuesday night.  A massive dust storm seemed to swallow up the city as an outflow boundary from a thunderstorm to the north near Tucson stirred up all sorts of dust from the Arizona desert.  If you haven't seen any of the videos from this event, you can check out the video and read more about these storms here.

Meanwhile, on Saturn, a storm that is being referred to as "the tempest from hell" continues to rage on for the 8th month.  This storm is being described as a thunderstorm that is as wide as Earth, with lightning that is 10,000 times more powerful than that on Earth, flashing up to 10 times per second.  Apparently, this storm corresponds with Saturn's summer solstice....and is similar to the summertime-type storms we experience here.  For more on this story, click here.

Saturday 7/2 Update

Hope your Fourth of July weekend is going well so far.  No complaints about today's weather, as we had plenty of sunshine to enjoy, and the worst of the heat and humidity stayed just to our west (St. Louis and Springfield, MO, both reached 99). 

Looking ahead to the rest of the holiday weekend, the big variable/question mark in the forecast for Sunday & Monday will be the influence of a weak cold front dropping in from the south.  This front should provide enough moisture and lift to generate at least a few scattered storms over the next couple of days.  Here's a peak at the NAM forecast model for 7PM Sunday:

The purple coloring over parts of IL & MO is estimated accumulated rainfall over 6 hours...indicating the chance for scattered storms during the afternoon & early evening.  That is where I think the best chance of scattered storms will be Sunday, although it's not out of question that something could pop up elsewhere.  No organized severe weather is anticipated, although a storm or two could produce some marginally severe hail or wind.  Officially, I'm putting the rain chance at 20% for Sunday, with the rest of us seeing sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Sunday should be the warmest day of the weekend too...with highs in the mid 90's. 

Looking ahead to Independence Day, a couple of forecast models are indicating the potential for an MCS (mesoscale convective system...or simply a thunderstorm cluster) to move through late Sunday night/early Monday morning.  I'm not sold on this yet, and many times these are extremely difficult to predict more than 12 hours out, so stay tuned.  Regardless, an overnight storm shouldn't disrupt many plans.  As for Monday afternoon, it's a similar setup to Sunday...only I believe the chances for scattered storms are a little higher area-wide.  Here's what the NAM looks like for 7PM:

Notice that there is a little broader coverage on the rain there...so officially I'm going with a 40% chance of scattered storms during the afternoon and early evening, but I think as the peak heating of the day diminishes, we'll see most of the storms die down in time for fireworks displays.

Heading into the rest of next week, the same front that will drop in from the south later tomorrow will waffle back and forth this week, leading to an up and down swing in temperatures and rain chances.

On Tuesday, the front pushes back to the north, leading to more heat and diminishing rain chances.  Then Wednesday & Thursday, the front drops back to the south, upping scattered storm chances, and eventually leading to a slight cool down (perhaps), by the end of the week.  However, as we continue on into the July, the frequency of cold fronts actually making it through our area decreases, so this forecast is certainly subject to change.

A couple of quick extras, I found a couple of interesting tidbits on spaceweather.com today.  First of all, the International Space Station will be visible from our area tonight and Sunday night.  Tonight, it will be visible in the WNW sky (47 degree elevation), between 9:28-9:31 PM....then again Sunday night in the NNW sky (68 degrees), between 8:30-8:34 PM.  To see the specifics on how to view the ISS from your backyard, check out http://www.spaceweather.com/flybys.

A second thing from that site...a rare type of clouds, called noctilucent clouds, invaded parts of the northern U.S.  Check out this picture from Washington state: 

To read more on these clouds, click here.