Monday 10/1 Update

Good Monday everyone!  October is off to a cool and rather soggy start as a slow moving area of low pressure continues to lift every so slowly across the area.  It looks like this system will continue to keep things damp and cool tonight and tomorrow.

Above is a snapshot from the NAM model at 7AM Tuesday, showing an elongated trough sprawling from the Great Lakes all the way toward the Gulf Coast....leading to continued unsettled weather.

The 7AM Tuesday surface chart depicts a surface low along the KY/TN border to our east....with clouds and some drizzle/spotty showers continuing across the area through most of the day.  Rainfall totals on Tuesday should generally remain below 0.25", and temperatures will again struggle to even reach the mid 60's. 

This system will continue to spin over the region through Wednesday morning, and today's model runs actually keep a small chance of light rain in the forecast through early Wed...especially in S. IL & SEMO.

By Thursday, another pretty strong cold front will be positioned off to our west (shown above).  There have been some timing differences over the last couple of days in the models as far as when the front will enter and exit the region, so there could be some changes to the forecast over the next few days as models come into better agreement. As of now, it looks like Friday should be when the front brings some rain....as shown below by the GFS (6 hr precip through 7PM Friday)

This front looks like it will bring a healthy batch of cool air to the region for the weekend.  Right now, it looks like highs in the 60's and lows in the lower 40's will be likely....maybe cooler? 

Speaking of cooler, the October monthly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is out and calls for a good chance of below average temperatures and average precipitation for our part of the country. 

Temperature Outlook:

 Precipitation Outlook:

Monday 9/24 Update

Hello everyone, hope you stayed warm this morning!  For the second straight day, we had an official low of 38 degrees at Barkley Regional Airport.  But after a chilly start to the day, our focus for this week is actually on a setup that will lead to unseasonable warmth and a lengthy period of shower chances.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll have a warm front lifting into the region.  Ahead of this front, moisture is increasing, leading to the arrival of some higher clouds this evening.  After midnight, chances for scattered showers and imbedded rumbles of thunder will be arriving. Along with rain chances, this front will also bring in some very warm and humid air. A very noticeable warm up will accompany this front as well, with highs expected in the mid and possibly upper 80's tomorrow!  As the warm front lifts into the region, the cold front pictured from near Chicago back into Iowa and Nebraska will slide south and stall across our region.

The stalled front will be keeping our weather setup fairly unsettled through the week.  The GFS surface chart above shows shower chances arriving by early Tuesday, and continuing along the stalled front through Wednesday morning.

And a glance at the model from Wednesday PM through Friday AM continue to show a band of purple draped across our region...indicating continuing chances for rain near the front through the end of the week.

As we look ahead to the next several days on the surface map above (top left shows Thursday, top middle Friday, etc), it looks like this frontal boundary will be part of our weather picture through the end of the week, until another front over the weekend is able to win out and push some cooler and drier air south.  Before that next front arrives on Friday or Saturday, we'll have about a 30% chance of rain each day...with the highest chances along/north of the Ohio River.  Temperatures will stay quite warm south of the front as well, with highs running in the mid 80's through Thursday.

The forecast models have been a bit of a jumbled mess for late in the weekend and the first of next week, so I'm not going to get into much there until we have a little better model agreement.  Hopefully we can keep it dry for BBQ on the River!